Chapter 6

The trial (Gaal supposed it to be one, though it bore little resemblancelegalistically to the elaborate trial techniques Gaal had read of) had notlasted long. It was in its third day. Yet already, Gaal could no longerstretch his memory back far enough to embrace its beginning.
He himself  had been but little  pecked at. The heavy  guns were trained onDr. Seldon  himself. Hari Seldon, however,  sat there unperturbed. To Gaal,he   was   the   only   spot  of   stability   remaining   in  the   world.
The audience  was small and drawn exclusively from  among the Barons of theEmpire.  Press  and public  were  excluded  and it  was  doubtful that  anysignificant number of outsiders  even knew that a trial of Seldon was beingconducted.  The  atmosphere  was one  of  unrelieved  hostility toward  thedefendants.
Five of  the Commission of Public  Safety sat behind the  raised desk. Theywore scarlet and gold  uniforms and the shining, close-fitting plastic capsthat were the sign  of their judicial function. In the center was the ChiefCommissioner Linge Chen. Gaal  had never before seen so great a Lord and hewatched  him with fascination.  Chen, throughout  the trial, rarely  said aword.  He made  it quite clear  that much  speech was beneath  his dignity.
The  Commission's   Advocate  consulted  his  notes   and  the  examinationcontinued, with Seldon still on the stand:
Q. Let us  see, Dr. Seldon. How many men are now  engaged in the project ofwhich you are head?
A. Fifty mathematicians.
Q. Including Dr. Gaal Dornick?
A. Dr. Dornick is the fifty-first,Q.  Oh, we  have fifty-one  then? Search  your memory, Dr.  Seldon. Perhapsthere   are    fifty-two   or   fifty-three?   Or    perhaps   even   more?
A. Dr.  Dornick has not yet formally joined  my organization. When he does,the  membership  will be  fifty-one.  It  is now  fifty,  as  I have  said.
Q. Not perhaps nearly a hundred thousand?
A. Mathematicians? No.
Q.  I did  not  say mathematicians.  Are there  a  hundred thousand  in allcapacities?
A. In all capacities, your figure may be correct.
Q.  May  be? I  say  it is.  I  say that  the  men in  your project  numberninety-eight thousand, five hundred and seventy-two.
A. I believe you are counting women and children.
Q. (raising  his voice) Ninety eight  thousand five hundred and seventy-twoindividuals is  the intent  of my statement.  There is no  need to quibble.
A. I accept the figures.
Q. (referring to his notes) Let us drop that for the moment, then, and takeup another matter which we have already discussed at some length. Would yourepeat,  Dr.  Seldon,  your  thoughts  concerning the  future  of  Trantor?
A. I have said,  and I say again, that Trantor will lie in ruins within thenext three centuries.
Q. You do not consider your statement a disloyal one?
A.   No,  sir.   Scientific  truth   is  beyond  loyalty   and  disloyalty.
Q.  You   are  sure  that  your   statement  represents  scientific  truth?
A. I am.
Q. On what basis?
A. On the basis of the mathematics of psychohistory.
Q. Can you prove that this mathematics is valid'?
A. Only to another mathematician.
Q. (with  a smile) Your claim  then is that your truth  is of so esoteric anature that  it is beyond the understanding of a plain  man. It seems to methat truth  should be clearer than that, less  mysterious, more open to themind.
A.  It  presents no  difficulties  to  some minds.  The  physics of  energytransfer, which we know  as thermodynamics, has been clear and true throughall the  history of  man since the  mythical ages, yet there  may be peoplepresent who  would find it impossible  to design a power  engine. People ofhigh   intelligence,   too.  I   doubt   if   the  learned   Commissioners?
At this  point, one  of the Commissioners  leaned toward the  Advocate. Hiswords  were  not heard  but  the hissing  of  the voice  carried a  certainasperity. The Advocate flushed and interrupted Seldon.
Q. We  are not here to  listen to speeches, Dr.  Seldon. Let us assume thatyou have  made your point. Let  me suggest to you  that your predictions ofdisaster  might be intended  to destroy  public confidence in  the ImperialGovernment for purposes of your own.
A. That is not so.
Q. Let me suggest  that you intend to claim that a period of time precedingthe so-called ruin of  Trantor will be filled with unrest of various types.
A. That is correct.
Q. And that by the mere prediction thereof, you hope to bring it about, andto have then an army of a hundred thousand available.
A. In  the first place, that is not so. And  if it were, investigation willshow  you that barely  ten thousand are  men of  military age, and  none ofthese has training in arms.
Q. Are you acting as an agent for another?
A. I am not in the pay of any man, Mr. Advocate.
Q.   You   are   entirely   disinterested?   You   are   serving   science?
A. I am.
Q.  Then  let  us   see  how.  Can  the  future  be  changed,  Dr.  Seldon?
A. Obviously.  This courtroom may explode in the next  few hours, or it maynot.  If it  did, the  future would  undoubtedly be  changed in  some minorrespects.
Q. You  quibble, Dr. Seldon. Can  the overall history of  the human race bechanged?
A. Yes.
Q. Easily?
A. No. With great difficulty.
Q. Why?
A.  The psychohistoric  trend of  a planet-full  of people contains  a hugeinertia. To  be changed it must be met  with something possessing a similarinertia.  Either as  many people  must be  concerned, or  if the  number ofpeople be  relatively small, enormous  time for change must  be allowed. Doyou understand?
Q. I think I  do. Trantor need not be ruined, if a great many people decideto act so that it will not.
A. That is right.
Q. As many as a hundred thousand people?
A. No, sir. That is far too few.
Q. You are sure?
A. Consider that Trantor  has a population of over forty billions. Considerfurther that the trend leading to ruin does not belong to Trantor alone butto the Empire as a whole and the Empire contains nearly a quintillion humanbeings.
Q. I  see. Then perhaps a hundred thousand people  can change the trend, ifthey   and    their   descendants   labor   for    three   hundred   years.
A.   I'm  afraid   not.  Three   hundred  years   is  too  short   a  time.
Q. Ah! In that case, Dr. Seldon, we are left with this deduction to be madefrom your statements. You  have gathered one hundred thousand people withinthe confines of your  project. These are insufficient to change the historyof Trantor within three  hundred years. In other words, they cannot preventthe destruction of Trantor no matter what they do.
A. You are unfortunately correct.
Q. And on the other hand, your hundred thousand are intended for no illegalpurpose.
A. Exactly.
Q. (slowly  and with  satisfaction) In that  case, Dr. Seldon? Now attend,sir, most  carefully, for we want a considered  answer. What is the purposeof your hundred thousand?
The Advocate's  voice had  grown strident. He  had sprung his  trap; backedSeldon into a comer; driven him astutely from any possibility of answering.
There was  a rising buzz of  conversation at that which  swept the ranks ofthe peers  in the audience and invaded even  the row of Commissioners. Theyswayed  toward  one another  in  their  scarlet and  gold,  only the  Chiefremaining uncorrupted.
Hari  Seldon  remained unmoved.  He  waited  for the  babble to  evaporate.
A. To minimize the effects of that destruction.
Q. And exactly what do you mean by that?
A. The  explanation is simple. The coming destruction  of Trantor is not anevent in  itself, isolated in the  scheme of human development.  It will bethe climax to an intricate drama which was begun centuries ago and which isaccelerating in  pace continuously.  I refer, gentlemen,  to the developingdecline and fall of the Galactic Empire.
The buzz now became  a dull roar. The Advocate, unheeded, was yelling, "Youare openly declaring that? and stopped because the cries of "Treason" fromthe audience  showed that  the point had  been made without  any hammering.
Slowly, the  Chief Commissioner raised his gavel once  and let it drop. Thesound was that of a mellow gong. When the reverberations ceased, the gabbleof   the   audience  also   did.   The   Advocate  took   a  deep   breath.
Q. (theatrically)  Do you realize, Dr. Seldon, that  you are speaking of anEmpire  that  has  stood   for  twelve  thousand  years,  through  all  thevicissitudes of  the generations, and  which has behind it  the good wishesand love of a quadrillion human beings?
A.  I am  aware both  of the  present status  and the  past history  of theEmpire. Without disrespect, I  must claim a far better knowledge of it thanany in this room.
Q. And you predict its ruin?
A.  It is  a  prediction which  is made  by  mathematics. I  pass  no moraljudgements.  Personally, I  regret the  prospect. Even  if the  Empire wereadmitted  to be  a bad  thing (an admission  I do  not make), the  state ofanarchy which  would follow  its fall would  be worse. It is  that state ofanarchy  which  my  project  is  pledged  to  fight. The  fall  of  Empire,gentlemen,  is a  massive  thing, however,  and  not easily  fought. It  isdictated  by a  rising bureaucracy,  a receding  initiative, a  freezing ofcaste, a damming of  curiosity ?a hundred other factors. It has been goingon, as  I have  said, for centuries, and  it is too majestic  and massive amovement to stop.
Q. Is it not obvious to anyone that the Empire is as strong as it ever was?
A.  The appearance  of strength  is all  about you.  It would seem  to lastforever.  However,  Mr. Advocate,  the  rotten tree-trunk,  until the  verymoment when  the storm-blast  breaks it in  two, has all  the appearance ofmight it  ever had.  The storm-blast whistles  through the branches  of theEmpire even  now. Listen with the ears of  psychohistory, and you will hearthe creaking.
Q. (uncertainly) We are not here, Dr. Seldon, to lis?
A.  (firmly)  The  Empire  will  vanish  and  all  its good  with  it.  Itsaccumulated knowledge will decay  and the order it has imposed will vanish.
Interstellar  wars   will  be  endless;  interstellar   trade  will  decay;population will  decline; worlds will lose touch with  the main body of theGalaxy. 朅nd so matters will remain.
Q.   (a  small   voice  in   the  middle   of  a  vast   silence)  Forever?
A.  Psychohistory,  which  can   predict  the  fall,  can  make  statementsconcerning  the succeeding dark  ages. The  Empire, gentlemen, as  has justbeen  said, has  stood twelve thousand  years. The  dark ages to  come willendure not  twelve, but thirty  thousand years. A Second  Empire will rise,but between  it and  our civilization will  be one thousand  generations ofsuffering humanity. We must fight that.
Q. (recovering somewhat) You contradict yourself. You said earlier that youcould not prevent the  destruction of Trantor; hence, presumably, the fall;杢he so-called fall of the Empire.
A. I  do not say now  that we can prevent  the fall. But it  is not yet toolate  to  shorten  the  interregnum  which  will follow.  It  is  possible,gentlemen, to reduce the  duration of anarchy to a single millennium, if mygroup is  allowed to act now.  We are at a  delicate moment in history. Thehuge, onrushing  mass of events must  be deflected just a  little, ?just alittle  ?It cannot  be much, but  it may  be enough to  remove twenty-ninethousand years of misery from human history.
Q. How do you propose to do this?
A. By saving the  knowledge of the race. The sum of human knowing is beyondany one  man; any thousand men. With the  destruction of our social fabric,science will be broken into a million pieces. Individuals will know much ofexceedingly tiny facets of what there is to know. They will be helpless anduseless by  themselves. The bits  of lore, meaningless, will  not be passedon. They  will be  lost through the  generations. But, if we  now prepare agiant summary  of all knowledge, it will  never be lost. Coming generationswill build  on it, and will  not have to rediscover  it for themselves. Onemillennium will do the work of thirty thousand.
Q. All thisA. All  my project; my thirty  thousand men with their  wives and children,are devoting themselves to  the preparation of an "Encyclopedia Galactica."They will  not complete it in their lifetimes. I will  not even live to seeit fairly  begun. But  by the time  Trantor falls, it will  be complete andcopies will exist in every major library in the Galaxy.
The Chief  Commissioner's gavel rose  and fell. Hari Seldon  left the standand quietly took his seat next to Gaal.
He smiled and said, "How did you like the show?"Gaal said, "You stole it. But what will happen now?""They'll adjourn the trial and try to come to a private agreement with me.""How do you know?"Seldon  said,  "I'll be  honest.  I don't  know.  It depends  on the  ChiefCommissioner. I  have studied  him for years.  I have tried  to analyze hisworkings,  but you know  how risky it  is to  introduce the vagaries  of anindividual   in  the   psychohistoric   equations.  Yet   I  have   hopes."